http://bugs.winehq.org/show_bug.cgi?id=22410
--- Comment #8 from Alistair Leslie-Hughes leslie_alistair@hotmail.com 2010-04-20 06:44:00 --- The issue was the path used \ whereas urlmon was expecting //.
Patch sent http://www.winehq.org/pipermail/wine-patches/2010-April/087517.html
This gets the trial pass the "Initialization failed" failed message.